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'Hari Seldon-izing' Our Neighborhood.

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    1. mha
      MHA

      rocking it
      Joined: Feb '10
      Posts: 1,352

      I have an idea. Does anyone recall the main character in Issac Asimov's Foundation series? His name is Hari Seldon ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seldon_Crisis ). Seldon had the uncanny ability to predict crisis and present the solution for that crisis. Similarly, I wonder if a couple of nerds and a crate of Red Bull could do the same for Crown Heights?

      I live in close proximity to crime. All sorts of crime. For instance, there has been at least three shootings in a nearby building. And of those three there were least two deaths. What if one were to chart all of the murders that happen in Crown Heights, would we see the emergence of a pattern? I know it sounds crazy, but, think about it. Maybe there IS a pattern. Maybe were we to 'Seldonize' the neighborhood we could say, 'Uh-oh, Franklin Avenue is due for a shooting this week, better stay indoors.'

      The recent shooting on Park Place is described as 'random', because no one knew that violent act would occur there. But, come on, let's be honest: It was Labor Day. We ALL knew that SOMEBODY was going to get hurt that day. Our handicap is that we could not determine where that injury would occur. So how random was it? If we knew there would be blood, but we did not know where there would be blood, then what that implies is that our innate math is accurate, just not dead-on. Knowing that there will be violence but not know where there it will be -- is like knowing that if you add two numbers together the result will be greater, but you don't know what that exact amount is. So what is lacking is the PROCESS to determine the accurate amount.

      Maybe it appears to be random because we do not possess the TECHNOLOGY to link the effect to the barely discernible causes. Maybe if we had some sort of statistical tool, it would aid us in determining, dare I say it, the violent future.

      Of course this would not be pinpoint accurate, but, it would definitely be eerie.

    2. whynot_31
      whynot_31

      Former Lurker
      Joined: Mar '06
      Posts: 16,106

      For something like 6 years, the NYT recorded all the murders in the city and plotted it on this interactive map.

      They recorded time of day, gender of the suspect and deceased, race, etc.

      They then discussed the patterns they observed in this article..

      As one can see from the map:
      -some parts of the city have reliably more murders than others.

      -the suspects and victims often share characteristics.

      -murders happen more often in specific times of the year and times of the day.

      These patterns were consistent before the study, and have been consistent afterward. So, in broad terms:

      We know do not lack knowledge on who is going to shoot who.

      We do not lack knowledge on where crimes are likely to happen.

      We do not lack knowledge on when crimes are likely to occur.
      .
      .
      .

      We lack the ability and/or the will to stop crime from happening. We lack the ability and/or the will to stop the social conditions that cause crime.

      For better or worse, the change on Nostrand is going to make the change on Franklin look minor.
    3. krowonhill
      krowonhill

      getting it
      Joined: Jul '10
      Posts: 248

      Partnering with criminologists from George Mason University, a team led by Sacramento Police Sergeant Renée Mitchell identified 42 “hotspots”—street corners that attracted the highest percentages of violent crime in California’s second most violent city.

      As part of a 90-day study conducted between February and May this year, Mitchell and her team assigned officers to visit a randomized rotation of three or four of these hotspots for 12 to 16 minutes apiece during shifts. That meant police would inhabit Sacramento’s most dangerous corners about every two hours. The officers were told to be “highly visible” during these visits—to step outside patrol cars, to talk with people.

      This was a change for Sacramento police. It focused on places to target rather than specific crimes, and relied on data rather than police instinct. The results, Mitchell says, were striking.

      http://www.theatlanticcities.com/neighborhoods/2011/09/fighting-crime-era-belt-tightening/112/

      Very un- "sivilized".
    4. whynot_31
      whynot_31

      Former Lurker
      Joined: Mar '06
      Posts: 16,106

      In NYC, the data is compiled in a program known as Compstat.

      Police and other agencies then deploy resources as a result of the patterns ascertained, and their efforts have been credited with much of the city's reduction in crime.

      On a less formal basis, many New Yorkers use the information to do the opposite of "deploy" ...they retreat.

      For better or worse, the change on Nostrand is going to make the change on Franklin look minor.
    5. User has not uploaded an avatar
      arches

      above average
      Joined: Aug '07
      Posts: 839

      Chicago has an excellent crime map that lets you see the details, location, time, etc of each crime recorded. It doesn't seem to have a "predictor" plug-in...but we should let them know that MHA is working on the technology

      http://gis.chicagopolice.org/CLEARMap/startPage.htm#

      Clearly this same data is available in Compstat - why it's not shared with citizens (except on an aggregate/precinct-wide basis) is probably a good question for the NYPD and local politicians.

      You can see some quality of life issues on the NYC 311 map (noise, vermin, etc) but no actual crimes are shared.
      http://www.nyc.gov/apps/311srmap/

    6. whynot_31
      whynot_31

      Former Lurker
      Joined: Mar '06
      Posts: 16,106

      Spotcrime also collects and displays NYC crime data. One can type in a zip code and then look at least at the felonies that happened over a given period. Spotcrime is a little quirky, but here's the data for only 11238. One can a borough-wide perspective by typing in Brooklyn. One can reduce the number of icons if one types in different zip codes.

      And of course, if you want something that is updated all of the time, there is the Gothamist Map. One can go to the site every summer night and see the little blue shields pretty consistently in the same neighborhoods....

      Protip: When it rains, there are usually more car accidents, but less shootings, stabbings, and homicides.

      For better or worse, the change on Nostrand is going to make the change on Franklin look minor.
    7. User has not uploaded an avatar
      arches

      above average
      Joined: Aug '07
      Posts: 839

      I find that Spotcrime and Gothamist are pretty selective about what crimes they list (probably b/c they are both derived from a system that uses nothing more than a guy listening to a police scanner and taking notes).

      Linking Compstat data directly into a map would be much more informative - especially for smaller crimes.

    8. whynot_31
      whynot_31

      Former Lurker
      Joined: Mar '06
      Posts: 16,106

      I agree.

      ....and believe that it is the small, frequent crimes that cause me to avoid many areas of NYC.

      Murders don't bother me in the same way.

      For better or worse, the change on Nostrand is going to make the change on Franklin look minor.
    9. mha
      MHA

      rocking it
      Joined: Feb '10
      Posts: 1,352

      Fascinating. Thank you all for this information.


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