Yes, I feel that definately plays a role.
I'll also add that:
Because the landlords and homeowners skimp on heat, fires disproprtionately affect low income people, who are forced to use their stoves (open flame...) or plug based electric heaters for heat.
As a result, I suspect last year's mild winter, combined with rigorous DOB and HPD code enforcement re: providing adequate heat saved lives.
I also suspect that the "gentrification" of NYC, (which has increased average income in many areas) resulted in less deaths, because it may have allowed the fire department to focus its limited resources on the areas which are most at risk: Areas in which the housing stock is poor, and/or residents resort to unsafe methods to heat their homes, and/or residents live in crowded conditions.
Related reading: http://www.nynp.biz/index.php/breaking-news/13255-otda-begins-accepting-heap-applications-.html
For better or worse, the change on Nostrand is going to make the change on Franklin look minor.