help me win my oscar pool (or not)

babyfishmouth

picture: babel (the crash of 2006)

director: clint (i sometimes think that maybe the scorsese pressure will finally get to voters, but then i come to my senses. i don't think this award is won on sympathy, or else he (scorsese) would already have one by now. anyway they obviously have something against him, and i don't see them changing their minds because of the departed. voters honor letters from iwo jima in this category instead of the big one...?)

actor: forest whitaker (in the bag)

actress: helen mirren (see forest whitaker)

actor, supporting: alan arkin (i know, i know--eddie murphy. but i feel like this tends to go to an "established" career person, for a slightly "kooky" performance)

actress, supporting: cate (i know she already has one, and i know jennifer hudson is the expected shoo-in, but cate b and judi d turned a lurid, potentially cheesy story into a very entertaining moviegoing experience, and in the end i think that actors tend to honor actors. i didn't see dreamgirls but i'm sure she is amazing in the part, and even though everyone thinks/believes she will win, i still think that would be a major upset. i also think the two babel's might cancel each other out, and even though i loved 'little miss sunshine', i don't see them voting for young abigail, although anna paquin and jodie foster represent possible precedent for her)

screenplay (adapted): little children (i have no idea what's going on here, but i'm pretty sure that borat and the departed on not serious contenders, plus children of men--i think it's best i keep my comments to myself on that one. maybe voters will pick marber for notes on a scandal, but i think it's a close one between children and notes)

screenplay (original): little miss sunshine (i feel like this tends to go to a smaller-scaled movie, and this in my opinion is the smallest among the nominees)

i know this is not the full list; feel free to add if you like.

ps, and i am basically speaking to myself here (hopefully i will finally heed the advice): remember that these are predictions. don't get me started on who coulda shoulda woulda. pps, michele: heath was robbed! ppps, you too giamatti! pppps, apologies to jennifer connelly.

nuclear redaction

Believe it or not, every time I've done an office Oscar pool, I've followed all of Entertainment Weekly's picks exactly, and I win every time. (One year, a co-worker and I tied, and afterward we admitted to each other that we'd used the EW picks. The next year, we had to make a gentlemen's agreement to alter one pick each, although it ended up not mattering because we both forgot to turn in our ballots.)

alafairnadia

the departed was so good. of course, I watched it on a plane - it was super dark and I was totally focused and just so damn impressed.