Do you have a disaster plan?

devincf wrote: Well, yeah, hurricanes are pretty low on the real list of dangers, although I still remember Gloria - even if it was relatively minor. The thing about hurricanes now may be that global temperature changes are affecting the strength and pattern of new storms.

Yes, Gloria. The big non-issue of 1985.

devincf wrote: At any rate, disaster could happen at any time - another black out could be more like the one in 77, for example.

How could another blackout be more like 1977 when the one in 2003 was a wider and more affecting yet nothing bad really happened? It was more like a block party than a crisis. I still have my 2003 blackout t-shirt!

I'd highly recommend not watching the news as much. When Katrina hit, that was shocking. But now with Rita all the networks are treating it like a movie sequel. The level of bullshit coverage coming out of the Gulf coast now is astounding.

PS: Anyone have any plans for Godzilla hitting the coast? You never know.

devincf wrote: How could a new blackout be more like 77? I would think it would be pretty easy - the economy continues to slow. You don't think people in 77 were just more evil or something, do you? They were just poorer, in a city that was dead broke and couldn't provide, and in a country that was in a massive recession.

Then if that is true, why did nothing like that happen in 2003? The economy was on a downturn then and the blackout impacted a much larger area.

Also, growing up in NYC my whole like, comparing the economic situation of 2003 to the situation of 1977 is really stretching it. The city was truly going down the tubes then. Nowadays it's not as good as it was--let's say--10 years ago. But it's nowhere close to the situation of 1977. Heck, if 2005 were more like 1977 the housing market would actually be affordable.

I'm all for peparadness... But paranoia is not worth it... I'd recommend turning off the CNN and taking most peparadness warnings a tad lightly. News programs in the U.S. feed on fear; but that does not mean they are right.

We won't have much looting here because all stores have the pull down metal gates now also.

stacey wrote: Jack I have to disgaree with you there (even though I love your avatar and your web site) while a hurricane is pretty unlikely for NYC we are not a city that is really prepared for flooding, etc. For example - if it rains really hard or snows really hard look what happens to our subway system - there are always delays.

And even when we have been affected by flooding and other natural issues, it still is never on the same scale as--let's say--the utter diasaster of Katrina and now the pre-hyped fear induction with Rita. No doubt Rita will do damage, but does anyone not doubt how the media is hovering like an OCD affected vulture over this storm? There's such a thing as too much.

The few times the subway has been flooded the absolute worst thing that happened was comuters were delayed in getting somewhere or had to be rescued from tunnels. But no deaths. No mayhem. No risk of diesease on the scale of what's happening in New Orleans.

To me the blackout of 77 was worse than the blackout of 03 because there was less ways of communicating than there are now.

Yes, you're abosutely right. Please reread what I wrote. And please reread what 'devincf' wrote. He's implying that in the year 2005 a blackout would affect this area as badly as it would in 1977... Completely ignoring the fact that in 2003 we suffered a blackout and you know what... It was not as bad and not even close to the horrors of 1977.

Now Im not saying that everyone get in a panic but everyone should definately have a plan for themselves and family.

I'm not saying everyone should be unprepared. But at the same time there's simply paranoia and a "me too" mentality that permeates all of this disaster planning that actually does nothing but stess people out beyond any normal point and is very counter productive.

I think most people do have basic plans even if they don't have formal plans. I have a flashlight and spare batteries. And I always have a decently stocked pantry and basic medical supplies. During 9-11 and the 2003 blackout, getting in contact with family was frustrating but doable.

But I think that the topic that started this thread--meaning the hurricanes in the Gulf should spur us to action in this non-hurricane zone--is simply panic and not much else.

Heck if you're talking about natural disasters, a tornado has a better chance of hitting the region more than a hurricane.

There's preparedness and paranoia. And in this post 9-11 world, I think too much of the calls towards preparedness are simply panic inducing calls towards paranoia.

If hurricane flood waters force me to the roof of my Atlantic Avenue building, then maybe I will eat my words. But I doubt that will really happen.

devincf wrote: I wasn't comparing 2003 to 1977. You made a statement that I construed as "a 77 black out could never happen again," which I thought was silly. If I misconstrued your post, I apologize.

Actually the reason 2003 was mentioned was because you simply glossed over the fact that this blackout did occur and while I did see people in the streets with baseball bats ready for anything... Guess what? Nothing happened.

devincf wrote: As for the economy - 2003 was a year with a downturn. It was one in a series of years like that. A series that continues, and as gas prices climb, a series that will probably only get worse. Will we see a NYC comparable to that of 1977 again? Probably not. But I definitely believe that we're already seeing the effects of a weakening economy in minor crime in NYC. I think that within 5 years, if things continue trending down, we could see a NYC that would have a much less happy response to a blackout.

For NYC to be in the state of 1977 the whole city will have to enter a severe economic deficit, businesses will have to abandon the city and property owners would similarly have to abandon the city.

That is not going to happen any time soon. The closest we came to a mass exodus away from NYC was in the months following 9-11. But that was small scale at best.

Yes, there is a recession. But saying things could turn to the level of 1977 is laughable. It's not that great, but it's nowhere as bad.

devincf wrote: But again, this isn't paranoia. I was only throwing out some possibilities, but disasters happen. I don't know how much the Gulf coverage is bullshit when the New Orleans levees are again being washed over and when major Texas cities are being actually evacuated, but maybe I'm missing something.

Let me clarify this: I'm sure that most of the reporting of actual events happenining is 100% real and valid. No doubt. But I do think the majority of the 'talking head' commentary in the wake of Rita about to hit is 100% bullshit. Experts declaring this, that or the other. News networks hyping how many members of their team they have on the ground. C'mon, that's just feeding the frenzy.

Subject: Indian Point

http://www.ems.org/nuclear/indian_point.html

While we are a few miles away ... I would never discount a possible event at the Indian Point power plant.

But, in reality, there is not a whole lot one can do to prepare for something like that.

devincf wrote: I don't know, I'm just reading the headlines on CNN.com and I am seeing that two of the most powerful storms in history hit within a month.

They are not the two most powerful storms in history. They are two powerful storms and the reality is the Gulf Coast has a history of being pouned by storms. News Flash: New Orleans has been flooded before. Ditto with Galveston.

If you're relying on CNN for news my advice is to switch away. Those are the clowns who treated the opening days of the Gulf War as if it was a movie premiere. Heck, they even sold DVDs of their coverage.

CNN has really turned to crap nowadays and is more happy to compete with the paranoid hype of FOX News than to have their own voice. I'd highly recommend using the BBC as a source of non-panic inducing news. If something is serious, they say so.

Jack wrote:
Yes, Gloria. The big non-issue of 1985.

Actually, I was living on the Jersey shore in 1985 and our house was on the waterfront of a river leading out to the ocean. I woke up the morning after the storm to find our house entirely surrounded by 6 feet of water in every direction. Nothing on the scale of Rita or Katrina of course, but certainly the worse hurricane I've ever seen on the east coast. Depending on where you lived at that time, it was quite severe, and lots of people experienced extensive property damage.

ana.log wrote: Actually, I was living on the Jersey shore in 1985 and our house was on the waterfront of a river leading out to the ocean. I woke up the morning after the storm to find our house entirely surrounded by 6 feet of water in every direction. Nothing on the scale of Rita or Katrina of course, but certainly the worse hurricane I've ever seen on the east coast. Depending on where you lived at that time, it was quite severe, and lots of people experienced extensive property damage.

True. People on the shore areas of the region were affected. But in the great scheme of things, relatively minor water damage is not the same thing as the utter destruction that Katrina left in it's wake.

Damage of property is one thing. Complete loss of property and infrastruture. That's a whole other ballgame.

I think the whole Indian Point thing could be a real disaster in that
a) an accident really could happen ('cause that place sucks)
b) people would panic
c) all of Long Island would try to run away from Indian Point
d) they'd all run though here (unless they crossed the Sound by boat)
e) then we'd have all these crazy, freaked out Long Islanders in their SUVs on our highways (note photos of Texas traffic jams) and then out into the streets.

Sounds like a recipie for chaos. Of course there'd be close to jack you could do about your exposure, but people would still run away.

Equally, an epidemic (asian flu, SARS) would cause chaos and mass exodus. Any time millions of people try to leave, it can get ugly.

That being said, I'm too disorganized to have a plan or water. I do have many batteries, but that's just a coincidence.