Flashback 1988: Dukakis leads Bush...

Re: McCain vs. Obama Polls in June

I tend to think these polls at this time in the election are worthless.
the only polls that matter are the ones in Later October...
I think this thing is going to be closer than the current polls are showing.

Here is an example:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDD1F3EF934A25756C0A96E948260

Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides

By E. J. DIONNE JR.
Published: May 17, 1988

LEAD: Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.

The survey, conducted May 9-12, represented a significant advance for Mr. Dukakis since a Times/CBS News Poll in March when Mr. Bush had 46 percent and Mr. Dukakis had 45 percent.

In the latest poll, Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts led in all regions, but he ran especially well in the Northeast and Middle West. The poll found Mr. Dukakis with very substantial advantages over Mr. Bush among women, union members, Roman Catholics and blacks. Shift Since 1984 Election

Strikingly, 28 percent of those who said they voted for President Reagan in 1984 said they preferred Mr. Dukakis over Mr. Bush this time; only 9 percent of those who said they backed Walter F. Mondale in 1984 switched to Mr. Bush. Mr. Dukakis was also far ahead among those who said they did not vote in 1984, and he scored well even in groups where President Reagan continues to be popular - notably among voters under 30 years old.

One reason why Mr. Reagan's personal popularity may not helping Mr. Bush very much is that voters said that his Administration had performed poorly on key issues, notably drugs, which was named the nation's most important problem by 16 percent of the entire public, more than named any other. Democrats generally and Mr. Dukakis in particular were seen as more likely to deal with the problem effectively than were the Republicans and Mr. Bush.

Polls taken six months before ELection Day cannot be taken as predictive of the ultimate election outcome. Robert Teeter, Mr. Bush's poll taker, said that polls taken now may be overestimating Mr. Dukakis, since voters know little about him except the largely favorable news that he has won a a string of primaries since March. In the latest survey, Mr. Dukakis led his only remaining opponent, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, by a margin of better than 3 to 1 among Democratic primary voters.

In theory, a poll taken among as many people as were involved in this one should accurately reflect public opinion within three percentage points in either direction.

The survey did contain some hopeful signs for Mr. Bush and the Republicans.

Many voters, for example, worried that Mr. Dukakis may lack the exprience to be President, and the electorate as a whole sees Republicans as safer than the Democrats on foreign policy and defense.

In addition, half of the country's registered voters said they did not yet have an opinion of Mr. Dukakis, giving Republicans an opportunity to stir public doubt about his capacity to handle the Presidency.

Still, among those who do have a view of him, Mr. Dukakis was viewed favorably. Over all, 38 percent of registered voters had a favorable view of him, while 14 percent had an unfavorable view. Opinions About Bush

Two-thirds of the voters have an opinion of Mr. Bush, and it is not particularly positive. The Vice President was viewed favorably by 33 percent of registered voters, unfavorably by 35 percent.

The Republicans have been trying to paint Mr. Dukakis as a liberal, and the poll suggests they have good reason to try to do so. For now, only 27 percent of registered voters think of Mr. Dukakis as a liberal and this appears to be helping him win conservative votes.

The poll found that only about one-third of conservatives said they saw Mr. Dukakis as a liberal. In this group, Mr. Bush beat Mr. Dukakis handily, by a margin of about two to one. But among the two-thirds of conservatives who did not think of Mr. Dukakis as a liberal, he ran about even with Mr. Bush....