Crown Heights is SAFER than Prospect Heights...???
We posted this a while ago on our blog, but recently folks have told us that we should post it here as well. We, ourselves were surprised at the results, but upon further reflection we think it makes sense: http://nostrandpark.com/2009/05/18/measuring-up-crown-heights-vs-prospect-heights/
Comments
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Subject: Re: Crown Heights is SAFER than Prospect Heights...???
NostrandPark wrote: We posted this a while ago on our blog, but recently folks have told us that we should post it here as well. We, ourselves were surprised at the results, but upon further reflection we think it makes sense: http://nostrandpark.com/2009/05/18/measuring-up-crown-heights-vs-prospect-heights/
I'm not sure safer is the right word. The way those crime stats were arrived at is somewhat opaque, but it says quite clearly that it doesn't distinguish between petty larceny and murder, for example. It just takes into account the number of reported crimes. Assault, murder, rape, etc clearly have a greater impact on safety than say burglary, so the number of violent crimes, which is not in your table would be a better way to compare. Also, the "no snitching" culture that seems more prevalent in CH than PH may bias the results, since minor crimes may be less likely to be reported.
All in all, I'd say this is interesting, but provides no real basis for comparing the relative safety of the two neighborhoods. -
We actually had back-up data to support the findings, but originally, we did not post it. We just posted the info here if you are interested:
http://nostrandpark.com/2009/05/18/crown-heights-vs-prospect-heights-crime-stats/ -
So that data shows CH with significantly higher murder and rape rates than PH. The rates for robbery are a bit higher in PH, and the rates for assault are so low for CH as to defy reasonable belief (about half the national average). I strongly suspect the "snitches get found in ditches" effect at work here.
In any event, I still don't think this data supports the idea that one neighborhood is safer than the other. -
Isn't the crime data you referenced based on zip-code? The narrowest search for PH crime data is the 11238 zip code - which includes other neighborhoods (including western Crown Heights, Clinton Hill, western Bed Stuy, etc).
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Carnie, I believe it snitches get "stitches" not "ditches".
just sayin. -
i agree with whynot.
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I've heard both versions.
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The statistics are crap. They show that CH has approximately 13,000 households while PH has approximately 9,000 households. As we have discussed on this board, PH is about 4 blocks wide while CH extends from Washington to somewhere close to Utica and also extends to the other side of Eastern Parkway. Also, there are are more brownstones with 1, 2 or 3 families in PH, whereas CH has significantly more density due to more apartment buildings. There is no way that CH has only 40% more households. And there is no way that there is less violence.
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The rates for assault are so low for CH as to defy reasonable belief.
And there is no way that there is less violence.
The question that I have is, why is it so hard to believe the crime stats? What solid counter evidence do you offer to disprove the statistics? Is your disbelief based on the hue of CH inhabitants? Let's be real. It is.
How much will we search and search and dig and dig to find ways to undermine these statistics? Statistics that have the powerful effect of de-criminalizing and actually humanizing an entire community of people. Why does it "defy reasonable belief" that this could be so? I honestly want to believe that there is not a racial animus behind the incredulity, but what else could it be?
Generally, we only accept statistics that reaffirm the statistics that we have been fed to believe in the first place. "Positive hypothesis testing" is the term for it. We find it difficult to accept counter evidence because it belies what we've already accepted as true. But not only do "we" do it; "they" do it too. I work with young black teenagers who, unable to imagine their life story as being different from the statistics, live to embody them.
At the end of the day, these border wars are sad. And they are obvious. It is a more efficient version of white flight. No longer do the white folks have to pack up and move to a new neighborhood. Instead, by virtue of lines redrawn at a whim like the chalk lines drawn for a child's game of hopscotch, the new neighborhood moves to the white folks. Like magic.
How this all translates for us CH-PH neighbors is that we will always believe that the black folks who reside on the other side of our chalk lines are scary criminals who need to keep behind those chalks lines. And the empire that is PH will continue to grow. The community that was CH will dwindle.
I am probably one of the biggest proponents of diverse communities - economically, culturally and racially. But we just won't get there at the rate we are going. Open your mind. Break the cycle. Believe. -
Some thoughts (PH bias, can't help it):
The average price per home in PH has been skewed since the Meier building went on line.
As a parent, nothing on schools. -
Haven't been able to look over the stats in detail but there is something that I don't understand. For the household figure in Crown Heights it states 21481 but when I add up the totals from the NY Times info instead of using Corcoran, I get 109906. That is a big difference so I am not sure how Corcoran actually gets its information.
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Won't UB My Nabor wrote: The question that I have is, why is it so hard to believe the crime stats? What solid counter evidence do you offer to disprove the statistics? Is your disbelief based on the hue of CH inhabitants? Let's be real. It is.
That is one huge load of crap.
How much will we search and search and dig and dig to find ways to undermine these statistics? Statistics that have the powerful effect of de-criminalizing and actually humanizing an entire community of people. Why does it "defy reasonable belief" that this could be so? I honestly want to believe that there is not a racial animus behind the incredulity, but what else could it be?
Generally, we only accept statistics that reaffirm the statistics that we have been fed to believe in the first place. "Positive hypothesis testing" is the term for it. We find it difficult to accept counter evidence because it belies what we've already accepted as true. But not only do "we" do it; "they" do it too. I work with young black teenagers who, unable to imagine their life story as being different from the statistics, live to embody them.
At the end of the day, these border wars are sad. And they are obvious. It is a more efficient version of white flight. No longer do the white folks have to pack up and move to a new neighborhood. Instead, by virtue of lines redrawn at a whim like the chalk lines drawn for a child's game of hopscotch, the new neighborhood moves to the white folks. Like magic.
How this all translates for us CH-PH neighbors is that we will always believe that the black folks who reside on the other side of our chalk lines are scary criminals who need to keep behind those chalks lines. And the empire that is PH will continue to grow. The community that was CH will dwindle.
I am probably one of the biggest proponents of diverse communities - economically, culturally and racially. But we just won't get there at the rate we are going. Open your mind. Break the cycle. Believe.
The statistics are based on reported crimes and as such are subject to reporting bias. Don't you think it's a reasonable hypothesis that white New Yorkers (a bit more prevalent in PH) are more likely to go to the NYPD to report a crime if they are robbed or assaulted than black New Yorkers (a bit more prevalent in CH)? This is related to race, but not because of a bias on my part about anyone's criminality, but rather related to an understandably uneasy relationship with the police (especially after the Giuliani years) among many black people in New York City. It's not a difference in the criminals; it's a difference in the victims.
So enough with the homily. I don't see my neighbors a few blocks over as "scary criminals." And I'm totally ready to accept the possibility that there may be more crime or even more violent crime in Prospect Heights than in Crown Heights (although I doubt it). All I said above is that the crappy statistics posted by the OP don't really prove it either way. Garbage in-garbage out. -
Drkman - I thought the Corcoran stats seemed odd too. From what I understand there are about 150,000 people in Crown Heights - I don't know how that breaks down by household, but the number in the Corcoran report seemed low to me.
Not sure what the difference is, if any, but the Corcoran stats are about "family households"; the NYTimes stats are just about "households." Plus, as pointed out before, since the NYTimes stats are by zipcode, they are over inclusive - e.g. 11238 includes PH and CHill, 11216 includes Bed Stuy. Maybe that accounts for it. -
All I said above is that the crappy statistics posted by the OP don't really prove it either way.
So what would it take to prove it?
To me it is a reasonable, and very plausible hypothesis that black people are just as likely as their white counterparts to report crimes against their person. It is a proposition that, at least to me, does not "defy reasonable belief."
From my understanding, the whole "snitches" mentality is about the under-reporting of crimes against third parties. It doesn't mean that the victims are under-reporting. If anything, "snitches" is about a reticence to corroborate a crime that has already been reported or discovered. So I wouldn't think that the reporting bias is really applicable to the analysis. Unless you have some statistics to show otherwise... -
Won't UB My Nabor wrote:
Your point about snitches is well taken.All I said above is that the crappy statistics posted by the OP don't really prove it either way.
So what would it take to prove it?
To me it is a reasonable, and very plausible hypothesis that black people are just as likely as their white counterparts to report crimes against their person. It is a proposition that, at least to me, does not "defy reasonable belief."
However, I think many black people (quite understandably) avoid interaction with the NYPD wherever possible.
I'd put much more stock in data based on the NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) than reports to the NYPD. Surveys of course have their own problems (such as recall bias), but I think they're less likely to have the kind of racial reporting bias that interaction with the NYPD leads to. -
Who or what exactly is Nostrand Park?
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Flo wrote: Who or what exactly is Nostrand Park?
Someone promoting their Crown Heights-based blog. At least it provoked an interesting discussion. -
I meant the blog. Who is it? How long has it been up and running?
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I don't really know what NCVS is or how it works, but I would suspect if you're not reporting to the "po-po", you're not reporting to a national survey.
To address the whole "homily" comment - I intentionally used the word "we" because I do it too. I saw those stats and first thing I did was try to figure out how the hell the predominantly black neighborhood could have less crime. That's real.
At the end of the day, I live in and love CH. I'm a critical thinker, but I admit that because of my affiliation with CH, I'll probably scrutinize the stats less rigorously than a PH person would. I'm not sure that I agree, but I appreciate the insight about NCVS. If I lived on the other side of Washington, I'd probably be arguing the same thing. And that's what it really boils down to. Chalk lines. -
Safe or not, I've lived on the Utica end of Crown Heights and it just blows.
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i don't even have the first idea where to find a ditch around here.
this kind of failure of the imagination is why i had to abandon my dreams of a life of crime. -
This could also have to do with the fact that in CH there are far fewer dumb shits walking around late at night listening to their ipods with their heads in the clouds. Or people who don't properly secure their fire escape windows.
The kids that want to jump people and take their phones or break into apartments are going to go where the easy targets are and PH has a lot more easy targets than CH.
Just a thought. -
Ben wrote: This could also have to do with the fact that in CH there are far fewer dumb shits walking around late at night listening to their ipods with their heads in the clouds. Or people who don't properly secure their fire escape windows.
That could certainly explain why the robbery stats might be lower in Crown Heights than in Prospect Heights (although the latter would be burglary not robbery), but it doesn't really address why the robbery rates in Crown Heights would be so low as to be almost half the National average. That's the part that I thought defied common sense.
The kids that want to jump people and take their phones or break into apartments are going to go where the easy targets are and PH has a lot more easy targets than CH.
Just a thought. -
How does CH household income compare to the national average? If CH is less then maybe the thieves know that you can't squeeze blood from a turnip.
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I think blacks in lower income areas are generally more likely to be victims of crime than others.
http://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/16/magazine/black-crime-black-victims.html -
Won't UB My Nabor wrote: Drkman - I thought the Corcoran stats seemed odd too. From what I understand there are about 150,000 people in Crown Heights - I don't know how that breaks down by household, but the number in the Corcoran report seemed low to me.
Not sure what the difference is, if any, but the Corcoran stats are about "family households"; the NYTimes stats are just about "households." Plus, as pointed out before, since the NYTimes stats are by zipcode, they are over inclusive - e.g. 11238 includes PH and CHill, 11216 includes Bed Stuy. Maybe that accounts for it.
Ahhh, I see. Thanks for the clarification. I quickly broswed the info from the NY Times and didn't realize that the stats for 11238 were the same for PH and CH. That does explain why that info is overstated for the neighborhood. It would be interesting to find out how Corocan gets its info. -
Let me tell you something OK
I live on Bergen and NYA
Last night I was talking to a neighbor about a shooting/stabbing that occurred around the corner, and out of nowhere a Charger comes speeding down NYA with a woman hanging out of the window screaming for her life
Cops sped by maybe a minute after
I've had 2 bikes stolen and my car stereo stolen and we just moved here in December.
East of Nostrand it only gets worse and worse every block. We are looking for a place either back in the Alma Realty complex or up in Greenpoint August 1st. The few bucks you save totally aren't worth it. This place is a zoo. Granted when I lived more west I saw some shit too but it's a totally different zone over here. -
I'm curious, CTK- did you report your bike or car stereo thefts to the police?
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Ben wrote: The kids that want to jump people and take their phones or break into apartments are going to go where the easy targets are and PH has a lot more easy targets than CH.
Easy targets being...people with money? White people? Tourists? Newcomers to the hood?
Just wondering.
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