Election 2008: So is Barrack Obama finished?
Comments
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Wait a minute. Those sample sizes are AWFULLY tiny! I thought you had to have a sample size of at least a 1000 to claim any accuracy?
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Just vote for who you want to screw you!
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lilbangladesh wrote: Wait a minute. Those sample sizes are AWFULLY tiny! I thought you had to have a sample size of at least a 1000 to claim any accuracy?
It depends on the size of the population the sample is representing. The margin of error tells you whether the sample size is adequate or not. -
Carnivore wrote: [quote=lilbangladesh]Wait a minute. Those sample sizes are AWFULLY tiny! I thought you had to have a sample size of at least a 1000 to claim any accuracy?
It depends on the size of the population the sample is representing. The margin of error tells you whether the sample size is adequate or not.
Right; there's a simple mathematical formula that tells you the confidence you have on predicting the number for the whole population depending on how large your representative random sample is, typically using a cutoff of a 1-in-20 chance of being wrong by more than the margin. The operative word here is random: for the confidence interval to be accurate (and thus for the sample value to give a reliable estimate of the bounds of the true value) it matters a great deal whether you were truly able to sample from the entire population randomly, and thus it matters who is doing the poll and how they're going about it. Did they represent the kind of people who vote but are too busy to answer the phone or who are usually on the road? People who love to answer phone polls but can't be assed turning up on the day, or who love to deliberately mislead surveys? The kind of voters in aged care facilities who get bussed to the polling station but are otherwise hard to reach? In practice, there's no way to take a perfect sample, so the statistically defined confidence interval is reasonably expected to be an under-estimate of the true error. A quality polling agency will presumably have empirical experience with their polling method, and thus be able to add a fudge factor to their confidence intervals so that they're less likely to underestimate the error; don't know whether they do that routinely.
Basically, of those two polls, one is dubious, the other looks conclusive, and the NYT said as much. -
Obama seems to have some good momentum now and I even caught a clip of Hillary tearing up in NH when talking about her campaign (bad timing and not good for the sole woman to start getting emotional)
Video:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4097366
Now the question is:
Can Obama beat Romney , Huckabee or McCain in the election.
What will actually happen if Obama is the democratic nominee?
What dirty tricks will be pulled by the GOP?
Will the race card get played? If so, what are your predicitons?
How will the GOP try to "swiftboat" Obama, I wonder? -
I kind of doubt McCain would resort to that kind of tactic. Romney, Huckabee, and especially Giuliani would do it in a heartbeat. Right now, Obama beats all the possible Repug contenders in polls.
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right now i'm itching for an Obama/Edwards 2008 ticket
oh lord. i just hope the CIA doesn't assassinate him first... -
EDWARSD?
NO!
Who is still voting for Edwards - I really don't like him.
Looks like the exit polling is turning out to different from the actual polling...sound familiar to the 2004 election when Kerry was projected to be in the lead over Bush, he never was.
Obama's camp seems nervous tonight and it is going to be a tough battle from here on out. It is NOT going to be a big victory or even a victory at all as some had hoped. Even if Obama wins, Hillary is sticking around. -
People keep talking about Hilary tearing up, but she didn't tear up. She just answered a question emotionally.
Since when is that a sin?
Now there are a lot of reasons why I don't like her as a candidate, but that's not one of them. -
witch-king wrote: gail collins makes an interesting point in today's ny times:
I think Clinton is going for Lyndon Johnson. Not a great comparison, btw.
"If Clinton wants to be Franklin (and Eleanor) Roosevelt in this campaign, and John Edwards is channeling Williams Jennings Bryan, Obama is, for all his early opposition to Iraq, the most conservative visionary in the group. Big change is hardly ever accomplished without political warfare. When the red and blue states join together and all Americans of good will march hand-in-hand to a mutually agreed upon destiny, the place they're going to end up would probably look pretty much like now with more health insurance." -
lilbangladesh wrote: People keep talking about Hilary tearing up, but she didn't tear up. She just answered a question emotionally.
All that Thats just making me say "McCain 2008". Last time he cried was in the Hanoi Hilton while being tortured by Viet Cong in '70. it's not a "sin" it just not the quality I'm looking for going in to Armageddon's and all. Didn't McCain come in 3rd in Iowa too?
Since when is that a sin?
Now there are a lot of reasons why I don't like her as a candidate, but that's not one of them.
I was really looking forward to saying, "Yea, we lost one, but we are better and are going to kick ass in round 2 and beyond becuase I am the better candidate.."You are going after the Commander in Chief of the free World. You can't start crying ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL when people as "how are you doing"? After going 0-1 ( the FIRST contest) in a heated battle. I have been hearing more negative from women than men on this issue via radio and podcasts. Did anyone on the Republican side tear up?
Interestingly the consensus is either:
1. It was fake
2. It was real
Both suck.
From what I'm hearing (which includes many women outside of her "home state" of NY) women do not like Hillary Clinton outside of the NE states. I'm not sure what it is, really but there is something inauthentic about her (I think the crying was real myself) and it does bother me that she did it - when she did it and why she did it. Turns out the woman who asked the question voted for Obama anyway!:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/09/woman-who-made-clinton-cr_n_80727.htmlThe woman whose empathetic question -- "how do you do it?" -- sparked uncharacteristic emotion Monday from Sen. Hillary Clinton ended up voting for Sen. Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary.
Weird. There is also something inauthentic about her too and WOMEN pick up on even more. It just turned me off as a person looking for a leader and I don't care how many people thought it was "brave" or "human".
Marianne Pernold Young, 64, a freelance photographer from Portsmouth, N.H., told ABC News that while she was moved by Clinton's emotional moment, she was turned off by how quickly the New York senator regained her "political posture."
"I went to see Hillary. I was undecided and I was moved by her response to me," Pernold Young said in a telephone interview with ABC News. "We saw ten seconds of Hillary, the caring woman."
"But then when she turned away from me, I noticed that she stiffened up and took on that political posture again," she said. "And the woman that I noticed for ten seconds was gone."
I want robotic, stoic, ass-kickery from her - here on out. It's about to get rougher before it gets better. When someone jabs her, she had bettr jab back twice as hard. If she is upset over a loss in Iowa, WTF is she going to do against McCain and the whole GOP on her ass in October?
She just got by in NH by only 2% and should be concerned.
Want to appear more "human"? Tell a funny joke and be real. Look for the Clinton camp to be the first to "Swift Boat" Obama a la James Carville and crew....It's about to get rough for Obama too. -
if this isn't about gender, why aren't we talking about romney crying on meet the press?
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"going in to Armageddon's and all"
what are you smoking?
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Yeah, I thought the whole point was to AVOID Armageddon. Which means that dialing down the testosterone a notch might help.
I saw that moment, and frankly, I don't see how this works for or against her as a president. She was being human. And that was nice. Nor do I think that she was being overly cynical in taking it back to the race, because that's what the subject was. It would have been inappropriate for her to talk about anything more personal. I took the moment as it was and I don't think it reflects badly on her at all as a leader.
That said, I have numerous problems with her as a candidate. While I think in general she's been a good senator, there are positions that she has taken as a senator that show that she isn't a person of principle, and that bothers me. I am bothered that she seems willing to say anything to get elected. I am worried that it will all end up as more of the same if she gets elected. The problems I would have with her presidency are the same as I had with the first Clinton presidency. She's like Bill, but with less charisma.
Principles matter. A minor display of emotion (and trust me, that was minor and I think the only reason why they're jumping on it is because she's female) doesn't. If anything, it only caused me to empathize with her just a little bit. -
hey. hey. lookie. lookie. Kerry just endorsed Obama
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7830.html -
witch-king wrote: "going in to Armageddon's and all"
Guess I've been watching too much MSNBC and Giuliani ads.
what are you smoking?
The planet is melting, haven't you heard?
The correct answer to the question "How do you go on", when posed to Hillary is this:
"How do I go on? How do I go on? I'm f*cking awesome, that's how! I mean, look at me - I am obviously the most qualified person in the group. These kids have no idea what they are getting in to! I have the better plans, I have better experience and I'm the most qualified and I know it - look at my resume!!"
This was an interesting article about Hillary:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/01/10/hillary/?source=whitelist
Hillary without tears
Why it's time to close the book on the Clintons -- and herald the Obamas! Plus: Iran war hawks, Russian drag queens and the genius of Zeppelin.
By Camille Paglia
Jan. 10, 2008 | Subject: Hillary and sado-masochism
As her husband has dragged his numerous female play objects before her and has humiliated her on the public stage year after year, she still stays within the marriage.
Hillary seems to take every beating, and yet she appears to "keep on ticking." Does she thrive on this?
How would this affect one's (female) psyche? Judgment as President? General perspective?
A swarm of biographers in miners' gear has tried to plumb the inky depths of Hillary Rodham Clinton's warren-riddled psyche. My metaphor is drawn (as Oscar Wilde's prim Miss Prism would say) from the Scranton coalfields, to which came the Welsh family that produced Hillary's harsh, domineering father.
Hillary's feckless, loutish brothers (who are kept at arm's length by her operation) took the brunt of Hugh Rodham's abuse in their genteel but claustrophobic home. Hillary is the barracuda who fought for dominance at their expense. Flashes of that ruthless old family drama have come out repeatedly in this campaign, as when Hillary could barely conceal her sneers at her fellow debaters onstage -- the wimpy, cringing brothers at the dinner table.
Hillary's willingness to tolerate Bill's compulsive philandering is a function of her general contempt for men. She distrusts them and feels morally superior to them. Following the pattern of her long-suffering mother, she thinks it is her mission to endure every insult and personal degradation for a higher cause -- which, unlike her self-sacrificing mother, she identifies with her near-messianic personal ambition.
It's no coincidence that Hillary's staff has always consisted mostly of adoring women, with nerdy or geeky guys forming an adjunct brain trust. Hillary's rumored hostility to uniformed military men and some Secret Service agents early in the first Clinton presidency probably belongs to this pattern. And let's not forget Hillary, the governor's wife, pulling out a book and rudely reading in the bleachers during University of Arkansas football games back in Little Rock.
Hillary's disdain for masculinity fits right into the classic feminazi package, which is why Hillary acts on Gloria Steinem like catnip. Steinem's fawning, gaseous New York Times op-ed about her pal Hillary this week speaks volumes about the snobby clubbiness and reactionary sentimentality of the fossilized feminist establishment, which has blessedly fallen off the cultural map in the 21st century. History will judge Steinem and company very severely for their ethically obtuse indifference to the stream of working-class women and female subordinates whom Bill Clinton sexually harassed and abused, enabled by look-the-other-way and trash-the-victims Hillary.
How does all this affect the prospect of a Hillary presidency? With her eyes on the White House, Hillary as senator has made concerted and generally successful efforts to improve her knowledge of and relationship to the military -- crucial for any commander-in-chief but especially for the first female one. However, I remain concerned about her future conduct of high-level diplomacy. Contemptuous condescension seems to be Hillary's default mode with any male who criticizes her or stands in her way. It's a Nixonian reflex steeped in toxic gender bias. How will that play in the Muslim world?
The Clintons live to campaign. It's what holds them together and gives them a glowing sense of meaning and value. Their actual political accomplishments are fairly slight. The obsessive need to keep campaigning may mean a president Hillary would go right on spewing the bitterly partisan rhetoric that has already paralyzed Washington. Even if Hillary could be elected (which I'm skeptical about), how in tarnation could she ever govern?
The current wave of support for Barack Obama from Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans is partly based on his vision of a new political discourse that breaks with the petty, destructive polarization of the past 20 years. Whether Obama can build up his foreign policy credentials sufficiently to reassure an anxious general electorate remains to be seen.
But Hillary herself, with her thin, spotty record, tangled psychological baggage, and maundering blowhard of a husband, is also a mighty big roll of the dice. She is a brittle, relentless manipulator with few stable core values who shuffles through useful personalities like a card shark ("Cue the tears!"). Forget all her little gold crosses: Hillary's real god is political expediency. Do Americans truly want this hard-bitten Machiavellian back in the White House? Day one will just be more of the same.
I will vote for Hillary if she is the nominee of my party, because I want Democrats appointed to the Cabinet and the Supreme Court. But I plan to vote for Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary because he is a rational, centered personality who speaks the language of idealism and national unity. Obama has served longer as an elected official than Hillary. He has had experience as a grass-roots activist, and he is also a highly educated lawyer who will be a quick learner in office. His international parentage and childhood, as well as his knowledge of both Christianity and Islam, would make him the right leader at the right time. And his wife Michelle is a powerhouse.
The Obamas represent the future, not the past.
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I suppose a candidate's history will always be discussed during a campaign, but analyzing Hillary's character in terms of her birth family's dysfunctions and her reaction to them seems harsh. And attacking her for her ambition is absurd. More charismatic candidates hide it better, but NO ONE runs for president unless they're obscenely ambitious. Normal people don't want the job.
That said, this quoteHistory will judge Steinem and company very severely for their ethically obtuse indifference to the stream of working-class women and female subordinates whom Bill Clinton sexually harassed and abused, enabled by look-the-other-way and trash-the-victims Hillary.
is spot on. -
i suppose there's some truth to that complaint, but there's also plenty of the old "define a woman in terms of her husband", too.
camille paglia is very smart, but i can't treat any article that include the term "feminazi" as a rational source of political discourse.
the bottom line for me and hillary is the war vote. everything else i find myself thinking about her that is negative, i find upon reflection is part of a system of values and assumptions i want to part of and that i wish had not colonized my brain.
and i'm still waiting to hear about cry-baby romney. -
sweet tea wrote: and i'm still waiting to hear about cry-baby romney.
i searched on youtube for it. to no avail. sadness.
you got a link? -
sweet tea wrote: camille paglia is very smart, but i can't treat any article that include the term "feminazi" as a rational source of political discourse.
Also a very good point. That word is obnoxious. -
Nice analysis of this double-standard.
I still like Obama better, though. -
quijibo wrote: [quote=sweet tea]and i'm still waiting to hear about cry-baby romney.
i searched on youtube for it. to no avail. sadness.
you got a link?
my mistake. on meet the press, he only talked about crying, to show how he really cares about black people, even though he also cares about his racist religion.
the nyt refers to actual crying in this article http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/politics/10campaign.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin, but better just to watch carny's video. -
Subject: it's Barack, not Barrack
I sure would like to see the candidate's name spelled correctly in the thread title and in the poll. -
if I were a candidate running for something, I'm pretty sure I'd be really fuckin' pissed to have camille paglia writing an article saying she's going to vote for me. she's a fuckin nutbar.
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Subject: Re: it's Barack, not Barrack
sandcastler wrote: I sure would like to see the candidate's name spelled correctly in the thread title and in the poll.
I'd prefer to see it spelt correctly. But I agree, that if the O.P. spelled it correctly, that would be an improvement. -
one could barrack for barack.
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sweet tea wrote: [quote=quijibo][quote=sweet tea]and i'm still waiting to hear about cry-baby romney.
i searched on youtube for it. to no avail. sadness.
you got a link?
my mistake. on meet the press, he only talked about crying, to show how he really cares about black people, even though he also cares about his racist religion.
the nyt refers to actual crying in this article http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/politics/10campaign.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin, but better just to watch carny's video.
I would say there is a big difference between crying because of empathy or happiness vs. crying because you feel under pressure or stress...
Her tearing/choking up seemed to come from being personally stressed out on the voluntary campaign trail. Not a good sign for someone who is going to be in charge of the Navy. -
She didn't even tear up! Geesh! Talk about mountains out of molehills.
She didn't break down sobbing. She didn't talk about her personal problems. And the question was inappropriate to begin with. I thought she handled it well and professionally.
No one asks a male candidate "How do you do it?" -
A Diebold scandal in the NH primary? Check out this interesting statistical analysis:
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2008/1/12/191247/981
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