Election 2008: So is Barrack Obama finished?

I cant say I'm not hearing the grumblings...esp. on the black community of Obama supporters.

There is a quasi-movement of sorts called " Make it rain for McCain" that syndicated Radio talk show host Warren Ballentine discussed don O'Reilly the other night. His callers are saying they would act vindictively if Obama is somehow marginalized...and made "unelectable". Which at this stage, that is the only way he could lose right now. The math is all in his favor.

In their minds, it would simply be a reaction to another existing movement against Obama.

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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/35516.html
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Will black voters stay home if Obama loses nomination?
By David Lightman and William Douglas | McClatchy Newspapers

INDIANAPOLIS — Many black voters are making it very clear: They're concerned that Barack Obama is going to be denied the Democratic presidential nomination that they see as rightfully his, and if that happens, a lot of them may stay home in November.

"It would hurt me not to vote," said Charles Clark, an Indianapolis retiree. He's thinking about leaving the presidential box on his ballot blank this fall if Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' nominee.

"There was a heck of a push made so blacks could vote. I know that," he said. "But it would also be very unfair if they pushed Barack Obama to the side."

Michelle Moore, an Indianapolis housewife, is less gentle: "Hillary Clinton would not even still be in the race if Obama was a white man," she said.

Her tough tone was common this week in this city's black community. Why, people asked, is the Illinois senator's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright being judged so harshly? Why won't Democratic Party officials acknowledge that Obama's in the lead and unite around him?

African-Americans have been the Democratic Party's most reliable bloc, giving about 90 percent of their votes to former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in the last two presidential elections.

In a close election this year, an African-American exodus from the voting booth could be costly to Democrats, particularly in the South, where blacks are a large proportion of the electorate.

If Obama isn't the nominee, "there would be a significant number of African-Americans who would stay home. They're not voting for (presumptive Republican nominee) John McCain," predicted David Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researches black voting trends.

Todd Shaw, a University of South Carolina political science professor, agreed, citing a groundswell of African-American disenchantment with both Bill and Hillary Clinton. They're particularly annoyed by Bill Clinton's performance during the South Carolina primary and by Clinton supporter James Carville's description of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Latino, as "Judas" for endorsing Obama over Hillary Clinton.

"The comment plays very badly with African-Americans and Latinos," Shaw said. "They remind them of 'Look what we've done for you; you should stay in line.' That doesn't sit well with voters of color. They view it as Northern machine politics or Old South boss politics."

Hunter Bacot, an associate professor of political science at Elon University in North Carolina, saw another piece of political history haunting black Obama backers.

"There's a sentiment among blacks that they've been taken for granted by the Democratic Party," Bacot said. "If Obama loses, it's as though their candidate's victory was overturned."

Democratic National Committee officials acknowledge that there could be some falloff of African-American voters if Obama isn't the nominee. Still, Karen Finney, a DNC spokeswoman, said the party expects African-Americans — frustrated by the war in Iraq, the sagging economy and high gasoline prices — to go to the polls in their usual numbers when they compare whomever the Democratic nominee is with McCain.

"We are aware that this has been an intense race, that there have been some tough feelings, and there are concerns," she said. However, how those feelings are soothed and concerns resolved will depend largely on how Clinton and Obama personally handle victory and defeat.

Several African-Americans in Indiana, which holds a crucial Democratic primary on Tuesday, said they could be seeing yet another effort by the white establishment to crush any African-American who's earned a powerful position.

"Here we go again," said Eddie Pryor, an Indianapolis retiree.

"It's like there's a ceiling for us," added Bangen Finley, an Indianapolis machinist.

Feelings are similar elsewhere. Former Rep. Floyd Flake, D-N.Y., an African Methodist Episcopal church pastor and president of a private black college in Ohio, said he constantly hears the angst of African-American and young voters about Obama's fortunes.

"If he doesn't get it, there will be a response," Flake said. "The young people will not be showing up to vote for Hillary Clinton if she gets it. I think given the turnout coming from young people and African-Americans (for Obama), I don't think they will go to the polls if she is the candidate."

But Jerry Mondesire, the president of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP and publisher of The Philadelphia Sunday Sun, an African-American weekly newspaper, said it's foolish for any Democrat to refuse to vote if his or her candidate isn't the nominee.

"It's a stupid way for Obama supporters to think and a stupid way for Hillary Clinton supporters to think," said Mondesire, a pledged Clinton delegate. "It's a selfish and destructive way to think. I can't think of what the Supreme Court would look like if McCain were elected. Roe v. Wade could be diminished, and Brown v. Board of Education could be impacted."

Some African-American voters in Indiana acknowledge that they might come around even if Clinton wins.

"I am offended by Hillary Clinton. What's going on now is unwarranted," said Shirley Graham, an Indianapolis auto company worker. But she will vote Democratic in the fall. "I am a Christian. I can't allow myself to have lingering bitterness," she said.

Others are undecided.

"They're criticizing Obama in ways that are not really relevant," said Bill Davis, a Carmel electrical engineer. "I will make a determination about voting in November at that time."

Michelle Moore, however, has made up her mind: Clinton is out.

"Senator Obama is just not being treated fairly," she insisted. "You would think everything that Reverend Wright says is coming right from Obama's mouth."

alafairnadia wrote: [quote=SevenOneEighty]Michelle Moore, an Indianapolis housewife, is less gentle: "Hillary Clinton would not even still be in the race if Obama was a white man," she said.

really? cause clinton is still in the race after several white men - who were much more liberal and much more palatable than she or obama are - ducked out. I don't know how big a part voters' race and (yes, I'll say it) the white liberal "yay, we're supporting the black guy!" thingy is playing into this nomination but I have a feeling is much similar to the gender side, which ranges from militant to "eh, I'd prefer a woman but I can live with anyone who's a dem." I hesitate to say it, because I know like geraldine I'll get jumped on for it, but I do really think that if obama were white, this whole race would have turned out differently, but not the way michelle moore believes. it might have been white-obama v. edwards in the end, for instance. or edwards v. clinton - moderate v. liberal. no clue. but I don't think that white-obama would equal clinton being knocked out at the outset. no way.

Can't argue with that at all.
And if Hillary Clinton were a man.....would she be in the race?

But to be fair:

If she were not married to Bill Clinton, would she be where she is today?
If some white men were not "white men", would they be where they are today....? If George Bush were Puerto Rican, would he be where he is today? Get real.

This is part of the irony and rage that those statements about Obama bring up. Why is it that only HE gets that "what if" treatment....?( that is what also makes the "articulate" compliment very revealing when people use it, that is "code" language that black people recognize immediately. He went to Harvard, HTF is he supposed to speak you assh*le?).

You can play this game ad infinitum. And when you do in a fair manner, you realize we are all products of our culture, race and history.It works both ways too.

This is a race that is as much about symbolism as the issues.
Most people, when pressed really couldn't tell you about Obama's, say, tax plan or Hillary's health care plan. When we take a closer look at the people outside of their "symbolism" people become disappointed a little. This is why Rev. Wright may damage Obama more than anything. He becomes " an angry black guy" much to the pleasure of his opposers.

Part of both of the candidates appeal and success is that they are not white men. Even the media seems to treat it is a type of "celebration" of sorts. CNN and NBC simply love Obama.

Liberal "guilt' voting:
Wasn't there a 'Will and Grace' episode about this?
Grace wanted "the jewish-woman" mayoral candidate , he wanted the "gay" candidate. They had a dinner party and had both over, and discovered they were both jerks and were upset.

Right before the end, they discovered their was " a black guy" candidate and both ran out to vote for him...without even knowing the issues.
They both exclaim with excitement and relief:
"There a was 'a black guy'"!!??

They are both qualified people.
But there is no limit to liberal guilt, and BOTH candidates owe at least a part of their success to that very force that is pulling them forward...liberal guilt.

doctorj wrote: [quote=SevenOneEighty]
This is a race that is as much about symbolism as the issues.

I'd say most of politics is about symbolism rather than issues. Symbols are pretty important to humans.

SevenOneEighty wrote:
They are both qualified people.
But there is no limit to liberal guilt, and BOTH candidates owe at least a part of their success to that very force that is pulling them forward...liberal guilt.

Why should anyone have to feel guilty in order to believe that electing a non-white-male would be a powerful and positive symbol to the people of this country and to the world?

No, they don't HAVE to be.
But they are.

Historian and author Shelby Steele gives a rather in depth analysis in his book about Obama's success and liberal guilt's role in it. I don't agree with all of Steele's points in the book, but he makes some very accurate readings on American society.


(Come November, Steele will either look like a fool or a genius)

True on the symbolism and Politics.
Obama's symbolism is a powerful all encompassing one that many can embrace for their own reasons. No one in recent presidential politics (including Clinton) could cover so many zones of symbols. His success in large part thus far is owed to the fact that he is viewed as a symbol rather than a person. (change, racial equality, youth, yadda-yadda)

His numbers drop significantly in polls when "human" characteristics are attributed to him: small mistakes, questionable associations, bowling, specific words, decisions, flag pens, experience, race, etc.

But when RACE is attributed to Mr. Obama, that is when his numbers really drop. People do not want to see him as a "race" (specifically as a black man) or deal with that issue. He ,seemingly, is the perfect candidate for this type of opportunity: i.e.,"Let's finally put this race thing behind us".

Shelby Steel's assertion in his book is" "...maybe he isn't the perfect candidate for this "symbolism" given his real human attributes" (some troubling facts are now coming to light: Rev. Wright, etc.)

But, the tough question for the Obama campaign will be:
Will Obama the man (that people are just getting to know) be enough to diffuse some of the real problems and contradictions that exist in Obama the "symbol" (intangible things that people like so much about him).