Will the franklin avenue tide move east or south? Place yer bets.

Nostrand has far more storefronts than Franklin South of EP, so it will take Nostrand longer to "fill" with storefronts that cater the new demographic. Nostrand will continue to see more upscale storefronts gradually open, because the immediate area is not expected to receive any major "shocks" in the form of sudden influxes of people with different means and preferences. I expect its change to level off by 2017.

Franklin south of EP (on the otherhand) will receive such shocks. Sea Crest and the Spice factory will become a large market rate housing complexes, and Tivoli will (at some point) be filled again with tenants. I expect these shocks to be done by 2018. 

Rogers Ave., in PLG, will be the next Franklin Ave. :-)

By the way, hey, @whynot_31, any guesses as to what will move into the commercial space at 90 Sullivan Place? It's midway between Franklin and Nostrand, and just behind that stretch of Empire that people are begging to have rezoned.

By the way, hey, @whynot_31, any guesses as to what will move into the commercial space at 90 Sullivan Place? It's midway between Franklin and Nostrand, and just behind that stretch of Empire that people are begging to have rezoned.

I have to assume bars and restaurants aren't allowed there by the landlord. Supermarkets (even the micro organic ones) aren't that profitable for the amount of work required.

So, I'd consider putting a really nice retail wine store there. The area is ready.

I define them as the young, childless, highly educated, RENTERS, in their first salaried position who arrived between 2007 and 2012.

In 2014, many of them are now gone. Those who remain and are moving in, no longer meet the above description to same degree as they once did.

To think about where their younger counterparts will appear, I ask myself why (in 2007) they choose CH and not Williamsburg, and then conclude:

I expect its change to level off by 2017.

Franklin south of EP (on the otherhand) will receive such shocks. Sea Crest and the Spice factory will become a large market rate housing complexes, and Tivoli will (at some point) be filled again with tenants. I expect these shocks to be done by 2018.

Note, in neither the Nostrand or the south Franklin situations are you going to get a large influx of young people, which I view as the defining characteristic of Franklin between EP and Atlantic between 2007 and 2012. 

@crownheightster said: Kingston is an interesting outlier. It is so vacant, but it has that 3 train access...From the successful new businesses that are on it now, and that plan to open, I wonder if its future could be in a niche of establishments that cater to young, cosmopolitan, hipster Chabad Lubavitchers -- upscale kosher eateries, cafe, small batch foods, fashion.

I meet the aforementioned criteria, with the difference being that I moved here in early 2004 (Franklin south of EP) after obtaining a job working on an ACT team nearby.  I also lived on Kingston between St. Mark's and Bergen from 2007-2011 while my building on Franklin was being gut renovated.  I'll echo others in saying that Kingston has a lot of potential.  When we needed to relocate we looked at a number of nearby areas and that section of Kingston is much more peaceful and laid back than a lot of the surrounding areas.  The Albany Houses are the biggest problem area around there, as shortly after moving there an 8 year old girl got hit by a stray bullet and holed up in the Bodega across the street (on Kingston).  The nicer area ended rather dramatically at Bergen back then, as the next block looked like a bomb hit it.  The fact that that block is getting fixed up is a pretty clear sign that the area is trending upward, and I'm curious to see what that area looks like in 5-10 years.  It'd be cool to finally be able to go inside the Kingston Lounge. 

Historically, one factor contributing to the lack of development south of the Parkway is the fact you essentially have a couple miles south of EP with no residential housing.  In order, you have: Prospect Park, Brooklyn Library, Mt. Prospect Park, Brooklyn Botanic Garden, Brooklyn Museum, schools, and then finally, residential housing.  Because of this, development has occurred more linearly and progressively north of EP.  The fact that there's been a lot of violence, gangs, drug dealers, etc. in that area (mainly the side streets nowadays) has been a further barrier to development.  Hence, it isn't a surprise that the NYPD is focusing resources on that area, as it's one of the primary bulwarks to further development south of EP.  As others have said, I'd prefer that it be south of EP for selfish reasons.  I think Whynot31 is dead on in saying that the more transformative changes will occur south of EP.  I also think that area is being encroached upon from different directions, as PLG area is also slowly evolving and changing from the southern end, centering around the Prospect Park B,Q,S stop.  The recent sales of the spice company and laundromat are signs that local developers already see the writing on the wall.  The continued beautification and expansion of Medgar Evers can't hurt either.  Not to mention whatever happens with the armory.  I think development will continue to the east, but I think the more notable development is the slow breaking down of barriers to development south of EP.  There's clearly going to be a lot of change throughout the area, regardless of wherever it might be most pronounced/notable.