Why all the vacancies on Vandy?

On this thread: http://www.brooklynian.com/discussion/comment/560410#Comment_560410

I just made this argument regarding a commercial strip on Kingston near St Marks that has not yet caught up to its neighborhood:

@Suppleknuckles -
You seem to be thinking about south of EP.

We are discussing this area. http://goo.gl/maps/BDf5F

The businesses have not yet turned over. Most will likely not have the combination of capital and skills required to adapt to the new demands of the new neighbors, and may be wondering why business is declining.

Business is declining in part because their former customer base is no longer present.

When the businesses come up for rent renewal, the rents will be much higher. Many of them will close.

The uninfomed or casual observer will conclude the the "economy" is doing poorly, when in reality, quite the opposite is occurring for those who own property and those who meet the new means and preferences.

the end.

In the case of Vanderbilt, it turned over about 8 years ago in response to the market that had arrived about 10 years ago.

Fast forward to today, and many of the demographics that arrived 10 years ago have changed AGAIN.

Those businesses that have wrapped their heads around:
- the number of strollers that are now present,
- the means and preferences of the people now pushing said strollers,
- the impact of 550 Vanderbilt,

will thrive.

....while those businesses that continue to try to serve the 26 - 29 year old wave of gentifiers that moved to the area in approximately 2003 will have a far more difficult time.

To respond to your theories:

(1) the rents that are being asked are unreasonable.
....If the rents need to be decreased, they will be.

(2) CB8 is a real pain in the ass (but this would mainly just apply for bars, right?)
...CB8 is a minor player in this game. It is usually relegated to the bench.

(3) the family nature of the area means that more family-oriented establishments are needed
....Yes, and no. Look closely at James on Carlton. It knows its market. It has adapted. It is full. http://jamesrestaurantny.com/

But in in actuality, you may be agreeing with me.

You see, the large numbers of 20 somethings that lived in the area in approximately 2003 are different from the comparatively small numbers of 20 somethings that live there now.

It is not merely the "quantity" of them that has changed.

Of the entities you mention, Soda Bar and Plan B were loved by the 20-somethings. The now-gone entites that appealed to them included Beast and Pequena.

The Vanderbilt has always sought an older crowd.

As to the ones currently seeking the younger crowd now, you are correct: Entities such as Chuko 1 & 2 and Weather Up will continue to do well, because they closely match the means and preferences of the young people who now live in the area.

I am with you, despite being popular with the area's 20 somethings in 2006, Soda is rapidly becoming an old man bar. One with a large unused room. If it can't find enough new customers, it too may disappear.

....so, we are actually agreeing: Businesses looking to locate on Vanderbilt businesses would be wise to look at the businesses along Smith Street. The demographics they serve are very similar. There are many demographics within it, but few of the ones present in 2003 still exist....

@tateinbk -
Because you and I are now out of date, Soda may not seem out of date to us. It remains a great place to to hang out with people who went to college in the 1990s. Some of them may still be single.

However, I believe @vanderbilly is seeking a place where he can hang out with people who completed college in approximately 2012.

....young, single, people who might be willing to share their anatomy with him.

Although rarely seen at the venues I now attend, I understand that such people do still exist. My preliminary research seems to indicate:

-They are comparitively more wealthy than you and I were at the same age. Or, at least they are acting as if they are.

- They may start to arrive at bars about the same time I go home (11 PM).

- They are not arriving at the same bars that I am leaving.

- They seem to be willing to pay $12 for a cocktail.

- Many of them can discuss varieties of whiskey for more 30 min, whereas I can only do it for 3 min.

For example, this past winter, I regularly saw young women expressing their wealth by taking cabs in order to dress "seasonally inappropriate". When leaving Soda at 11 PM to walk home, I would typically have on hat, gloves and several layers. Meanwhile, I witnessed said women reguarly arrive at Weather Up with their skin exposed to the elements and getting out of a cab.

....Ms. Whynot and I rarely did such things at that age. As a result, our activities during weekend days were much different: They seem to awaken at 11 AM and then go to brunch for the next four hours. Whereas, since our 20s, we have tended to wake up around 8 AM, and grab a bagel.

Anecdotally speaking, I had the owner of a new business on Vanderbilt express to me that the majority of the landlords are unwilling to give long term leases, generally limiting people to 5 years or less. Many prospective business owners, knowing that the break-even point hits around then (God willing), are unwilling to take the bait just to get a storefront open.

The Korean place that opens in the French (Le Gamin) place will also be different.

Other than that, you are right: You won't get much more than stores that require little capital (ie pop ups and nail salons) if they can't get long leases, or can only get long leases at a price that has them paying post-Pacific Park prices before said residents arrive.

The exception will be places that have the resources to buy the entire building. These are often owned by investment companies that already have similar restaurants and bars elsewhere.

if that's true (and it seems reasonable to believe it is), then the next couple years on vanderbilt are going to continue to be languishing until pacific park starts opening. i'd argue that vanderbilt is in a bit of a plateau or even slight decline right now in terms of new/interesting shops opening up. the new korean place replacing pequena will be different, but everything else is pretty status quo or closing. 

This is my fear too, that we're going to see Vanderbilt languish for a few more years. Then it will promptly blow up with all of the Dunkin Donuts and Bank of Americas you can handle!

Tim Wu, Columbia law professor, writes about this phenomenon of empty storefronts in a gentrified neighborhood in the New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/why-are-there-so-many-shuttered-storefronts-in-the-west-village

I think most of us have had a friend that thought they were worthy of an incredible salary (or a fabulously atttractive, famous, successful partner) upon graduating from college.

I view some landlords as being similar to that friend: They initallly think they are very worthy, then quietly end up settling for a reliable job/relationship.

Why does the Law Professor at Columbia need so many words describe the phenomena, yet still manage to do it less effectively?

Was he paid by the word? Did he not have said friend?