Speculation

doublen00b · January 2016

I've been watching the flatbush/farragut area since it's close to the growing and developing junction area. Fwiw it seems to be pretty hot. Latest example would be 3510 Glenwood road, it was listed and sold in under 1 month - cash. Price 1.35m, which is a new high for the neighborhood. There have been a number of houses that have been purchased to tear down, this one is on a double lot, hence the higher price. Of the double lot tear downs this one represents a +30% increase yoy, permits have not been filed but it was sold to an LLC so I suspect they will file soon.

What is curious about this is that the prices for the homes themselves have not caught up to the prices that the developers are paying to tear down houses! Interesting. What do I mean? Well there was another house 730 e32nd street that sold for 880k that is going to be converted into condos (http://newyorkyimby.com/2015/11/permits-filed-32-residential-units-coming-to-26-east-19th-street-730-east-32nd-street-flatbush.html), but just a few weeks earlier 1617 New York ave sold to retail homeowners for 749k... there is a pretty big gap, what gives? Similar lot sizes, same zoning. Why are developers paying more than retail costs just to tear something down?

whynot_31 · January 2016

Theories:

-They could have already purchased adjoining lots.

-The lots could be located in better school districts, closer to amenities (subway, shopping).

-They could be located further from undesirable things (noisy firehouses, unsightly shelters and buildings, busy roads)

doublen00b · January 2016

In the example, the lots are single lots of similar size, neither adjacent or tangent properties are for sale. School districts are the same, one is a single block closer to the junction. I specifically picked those two houses because they are about as similar as you can get, except the developer paid 130k more, but for reasons unknown.

I guess the bigger question is why are the developers paying more than retail? I thought their goal was get houses as cheaply as possible no matter what.

RudolfAhrens · January 2016

Is it possible that the seller of 1617 New York Ave refused to sell to developers and held out for an owner/occupier?

whynot_31 · January 2016

Would such an agreement be enforceable?

IE What is to stop a developer from stating that they will not tear it down, and then doing so?

Likewise, what is stop a family from buying it, and then promptly selling it to a developer?

....could 1617 have had a really bad real estate agent that advertised it only in the local area, and the other site a really good one?

pragmaticguy · January 2016

Maybe the owner of 730 East 32nd knew he was selling to a developer and figured he could wrangle a few more bucks out of him. It's possible that the house was only worth $750k all along. Just remember, when Trump was building the Taj in A.C. the woman who owned the house on that crappy piece of property refused to sell out even though he offered her about $1 million for something that wasn't worth 1/3 the price.

slam_harris · February 2016

Would such an agreement be enforceable?
IE What is to stop a developer from stating that they will not tear it down, and then doing so?
Likewise, what is stop a family from buying it, and then promptly selling it to a developer?
....could 1617 have had a really bad real estate agent that advertised it only in the local area, and the other site a really good one?

Don't all agents put their listings on the Internet? If not is there some secret website that has the good, dank listings? Where do I find the bad agents and get a good deal?

whynot_31 · February 2016

When you find out, clue me in.

RudolfAhrens · February 2016

Walk around neighborhoods looking for "For Sale" signs. Lots of mom and pop agents with listings that aren't online, especially in neighborhoods that are farther from Manhattan.

lox · February 2016

slam_harris said:

Would such an agreement be enforceable?
IE What is to stop a developer from stating that they will not tear it down, and then doing so?
Likewise, what is stop a family from buying it, and then promptly selling it to a developer?
....could 1617 have had a really bad real estate agent that advertised it only in the local area, and the other site a really good one?
Don't all agents put their listings on the Internet? If not is there some secret website that has the good, dank listings? Where do I find the bad agents and get a good deal?

slam_harris,

I used a broker from a well known agency. They seem to be able to cut through the mess of listings and many times find them before they come to market. They're also able to weed out the ones that aren't legit or are no longer available but still being listed on streeteasy, zillow, etc. There are a lot of small mom and pop agencies that don't seem to mind sharing their fee if they can get a serious buyer and a quick sale.

suppleknuckles · February 2016

everyone knows the good dank listings are the ones on trulia from small local realtors with 3 blurry upside-down photos of a corner of a room

whynot_31 · February 2016

I'm of the belief that the best listings come from lists that state overdue taxes or water bills.

....one then just tracks down the owner and offers them cash.

Bonus points if the owner is elderly and/or in the hospital when they sign the contract.

slam_harris · February 2016

I'm of the belief that the best listings come from lists that state overdue taxes or water bills.
....one then just tracks down the owner and offers them cash.
Bonus points if the owner is elderly and/or in the hospital when they sign the contract.

What moral complications could arise from such behaviors. Am I a good person if I go this route?

RudolfAhrens · February 2016

Nothing beats living for 30 years in a home that you obtained by coercing a dying elderly person.

whynot_31 · February 2016

I suppose you could also never live in it, and simply resell it for far more than you purchased it for.

slam_harris · March 2016

I struggle with my love for the darwinian nature of capitalism where there is no such thing as cheating, only wins and losses. and my liberal bleeding heart that believes it's up to all of us to stand for what's right and fair and honest.

RudolfAhrens said:

Nothing beats living for 30 years in a home that you obtained by coercing a dying elderly person.

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