Election 2008: So is Hillary Clinton finished?

Boygabriel wrote: True that. Clinton also completely relied on traditional sources of donations (big donations from 'bundlers'), while largely failing to capture grass roots donations, especially from small donors over the internet. Over time this has been a huge advantage for BO.

Well, I don't disagree that that has been a definite advantage for him, but the article was more about Obama's exploitation of politcal rules. Whereas Hillary, in retrospect, appears to have just run willy nilly and not paid attention to How Things Work. It is making the same accusation that has been coming up more frequently lately, namely that Obama is a political insider that has repeatedly exploited the rules in order to win elections. *shrug*

Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried. Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries.

In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake. Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey.

Is that wrong? Well, in a word, no. Additionally, in FoxNewsSpeak, Some Would Say that it is just the kind of thing that one might look for, someone that can look at and not only understand the system in which he is working, but is also capable of exploiting that system for his (or our) benefit. *shrug*

edit: sure would be nice if I could spell...

daver wrote: It is making the same accusation that has been coming up more frequently lately, namely that Obama is a political insider that has repeatedly exploited the rules in order to win elections. *shrug*

I think you're conflating different strands of a very broad topic, namely the degree to which Obama is a newcomer or an insider.

When I think of Obama I know full well he's a career politician, and can be expected to exploit every electoral advantage.

But that doesn't preclude him from having a lot of 'outsider/newcomer' attributes. For starters, his foreign policy advisors include a lot of fresh faces and fresh thinkers. People who, for example, spoke strongly and openly against the Iraq War from day 1. Something McCain & Clinton's camps can't claim.

You're fudging the labels, methinks. *shrug*

Boygabriel wrote: [quote=daver]It is making the same accusation that has been coming up more frequently lately, namely that Obama is a political insider that has repeatedly exploited the rules in order to win elections. *shrug*

I think you're conflating different strands of a very broad topic, namely the degree to which Obama is a newcomer or an insider.

When I think of Obama I know full well he's a career politician, and can be expected to exploit every electoral advantage.

But that doesn't preclude him from having a lot of 'outsider/newcomer' attributes. For starters, his foreign policy advisors include a lot of fresh faces and fresh thinkers. People who, for example, spoke strongly and openly against the Iraq War from day 1. Something McCain & Clinton's camps can't claim.

You're fudging the labels, methinks. *shrug*

I think you're fudging labels. what does being an outsider or newcomer have to do with being for or against a war? there were plenty of people firmly entrenched in their parties who opposed it, and plenty of noobs who supported it. this just furthers the disingenuous b.s. that obama is somehow functionally different for having a viewpoint that other folks in his party can't claim to have.

then again, I seem to recall clinton was a relative noob when making her choice re: war in iraq and I am pretty fuckin' sure she has said many times that she would vote differently today, knowing what she knows. shocking how people can change their minds with new information. seems very unlike the stalwart curmudgen people are trying to pose her as. maybe that makes her an outsider ... or an overwhelmed newcomer when she cast that vote. who knows, by your logic?

alafairnadia wrote: oh and ... is this my cue to say "dead horse - beaten to death" yet?

Why use words ... when you can use vinyl?

daver wrote: Why use words ... when you can use vinyl?

I'm sorry you feel that way about Iraq and the respective democratic foreign policy teams.

Boygabriel wrote: [quote=daver]Why use words ... when you can use vinyl?

I'm sorry you feel that way about Iraq and the respective democratic foreign policy teams.
Dude.

You like the G train and you are bagging on me for the Sex Pistols?

Harumph.

daver wrote: You can it electoral hardball, others call it being a weenie. I think there is an entry on urbandictionary.com.

Yeah, mostly I'd call it ugly, anti-democratic politics as usual, as done by any candidate under the sun.

jeffrey wrote: To me it sounds like you are referring to getting others disqualified, though (like Clinton's people tried to get Obama's awarded delegates in TX disqualified, and like Obama's people may have in those articles you mention, and myriad other in-progress position reversals, attempted rules changes and criteria/goalpoast shifting that we have witnessed).

That is a far cry from mere elections delegate math, projecting where one will be strong and where one will be weak and need to make up for it elsewhere.

That's just...erm...math.

Any candidate without a sense of how they do in various areas, and how they may need to make up for it elsewhere lacks some serious business and common sense.

Good point. I have seen Obama accused of both sorts. The math thing is definitely just math and sense, and let us turn this around and instead say why _didn't_ Clinton pay attention, 'cause she fell asleep in that class.

My guess? Because she thought she had the nomination sewn up and it didn't occur to her that it was something she needed to worry about. Does this now mean that Obama is Mr. Boy Scout and always comes prepared? Well, not necessarily. He was put into that role by necessity. The future's not ours to see.

Well, I mean, it is ours to see, but just like as it unfolds and stuff. Not like foresee or anything.

Obama is 41.5 delegates away from clinching it, and is likely to pick up at least 15-16 in tomorrow's primary, and a number of superdelegates are expected to announce their support for him tomorrow as well. It looks like it might finally be over tomorrow night. Hillary is scheduled to speak in New York, and rumors of a concession speech abound.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_el_pr/democrats

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/primary.wrap.int/index.html

Two senior Clinton campaign officials told The Associated Press she will concede Tuesday night or early Wednesday that Obama has done enough to secure the Democratic nomination, but she will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race.

WTF?!

Some people don't know how to lose gracefully.

Boygabriel wrote: What's the point? What is she hoping for?

she's supposed to have a mtg w/ Obama later this week and concede then. calm down.

Carnivore wrote: I really don't think Clinton would add anything to Obama's chances in the general election. On the other hand, should he win with her as his VP, she would be his best possible protection against assassination.

Isn't there a joke in there about wanting to keep Hillary in an undisclosed location?

And did anyone see the Cheney/West Virginia thing? Ha. Whatta maroon.

Carnivore wrote: I really don't think Clinton would add anything to Obama's chances in the general election. On the other hand, should he win with her as his VP, she would be his best possible protection against assassination.

eh. I totally think it would help his general election cred to have a decently brokered deal with clinton. he really does have a problem getting through to a lot of hispanic voters and working class/blue collar voters (which is kinda surprising given the whole war thing). I look at the numbers and see a relatively tight race between the two of them and any assistance she can provide he will graciously accept, I'm sure. 5 months is a long time to hope he can make it without those folks. not sure they'd all vote for mccain but they might be more apt to stay at home come november.

we want the dems to win both the popular election AND the electoral college, no?

Have any polls been done recently of the Hispanic and working class democrat vote in Obama v McCain?

just saw on the Captivate network (elevator entertainment) that USA today is reporting something about Clinton becoming Obama's VP if they think it'll make the democratic ticket stronger.