help me win my oscar pool (or not)

picture: babel (the crash of 2006)

director: clint (i sometimes think that maybe the scorsese pressure will finally get to voters, but then i come to my senses. i don't think this award is won on sympathy, or else he (scorsese) would already have one by now. anyway they obviously have something against him, and i don't see them changing their minds because of the departed. voters honor letters from iwo jima in this category instead of the big one...?)

actor: forest whitaker (in the bag)

actress: helen mirren (see forest whitaker)

actor, supporting: alan arkin (i know, i know--eddie murphy. but i feel like this tends to go to an "established" career person, for a slightly "kooky" performance)

actress, supporting: cate (i know she already has one, and i know jennifer hudson is the expected shoo-in, but cate b and judi d turned a lurid, potentially cheesy story into a very entertaining moviegoing experience, and in the end i think that actors tend to honor actors. i didn't see dreamgirls but i'm sure she is amazing in the part, and even though everyone thinks/believes she will win, i still think that would be a major upset. i also think the two babel's might cancel each other out, and even though i loved 'little miss sunshine', i don't see them voting for young abigail, although anna paquin and jodie foster represent possible precedent for her)

screenplay (adapted): little children (i have no idea what's going on here, but i'm pretty sure that borat and the departed on not serious contenders, plus children of men--i think it's best i keep my comments to myself on that one. maybe voters will pick marber for notes on a scandal, but i think it's a close one between children and notes)

screenplay (original): little miss sunshine (i feel like this tends to go to a smaller-scaled movie, and this in my opinion is the smallest among the nominees)

i know this is not the full list; feel free to add if you like.

ps, and i am basically speaking to myself here (hopefully i will finally heed the advice): remember that these are predictions. don't get me started on who coulda shoulda woulda. pps, michele: heath was robbed! ppps, you too giamatti! pppps, apologies to jennifer connelly.